Economic forecasting is an awful lot like weather forecasting. Based on what the experts know, we can be pretty certain of what’s going to happen in the next week or so. After that, we need to look at history and trends. Trying to make detailed predictions about what is going to happen in the futureContinue reading “What’s the Forecast?”
Category Archives: Markets
You Can’t Outsmart the Market
One of the things that frustrated me the most at my past corporate jobs was advisors who believed they could outsmart the market. That was the main value they brought to their clients. They manipulated data to make themselves look better. And it bothered the hell out of me. It felt sleazy, it felt scummy,Continue reading “You Can’t Outsmart the Market”
It’s Birthday Cake Time!
Happy Birthday to the Dow Jones Industrial Average! 125 years young. What started as a 12-company index of industrial companies (hence the “Industrial” part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average) published on May 26, 1896 has grown into one of the most watched financial bellweathers in the world. It aims to represent the entire USContinue reading “It’s Birthday Cake Time!”
Sell in May and Go…. Where?
There is a saying in stock market investing: “Sell in May and go away.” I think it’s a stupid saying. As I’ve written about before, the best performing market days often come in the most surprising times. It’s impossible to predict when they will happen. But missing those best days can be a killer forContinue reading “Sell in May and Go…. Where?”
It’s Been a Year
It’s March 23rd, which means it has been one year since the S&P 500 hit it’s COVID-19-induced low. As it became clear that this virus was going to become a global pandemic and the safest way to deal with it was to keep people from spreading the bug by locking the world down, the equityContinue reading “It’s Been a Year”